Assessment of the need for sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors in the Republic of Uzbekistan

Background. The increasing prevalence of chronic heart failure highlights the need for greater access to modern therapies, including sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, which have demonstrated clinical efficacy.

Objective: To estimate the need for SGLT2 inhibitors in the Republic of Uzbekistan based on an integrated analysis of epidemiological, demographic, and pharmaceutical market data.

Material and methods. A retrospective pharmacoepidemiological and pharmacoeconomic study incorporating predictive modeling was conducted using data from the State Register of Medicinal Products, IQVIA, and the Drug Audit system for 2020–2025. A multifactor model was developed that accounted for the size of the target population, treatment prescribing patterns, and treatment coverage. Sensitivity analysis and model validation were performed.

Results. Sales of SGLT2 inhibitors in the Republic of Uzbekistan increased from 1,700 to 1.54 million packs, with empagliflozin accounting for the largest share. The need for empagliflozin is projected to increase from 3.9 million to 6.1 million packs by 2036. Current consumption meets less than 46% of the potential need.

Conclusion. A substantial unmet demand for SGLT2 inhibitors was identified. The developed model can be used for procurement planning and improving the efficiency of medication provision.

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