Optimization of drug supply for patients with malignant neoplasms in a region of the Russian Federation

The aim was to assess the possibility of optimizing the costs of drugs for cancer patients in a subject of the Russian Federation considering the expiration of patent protection period.

Materials and methods. The possibility of optimizing the costs of antitumor drugs was studied using a model of a hypothetical region with a population of 2 million. A gradual replacement of the reference drugs with expiring patent protection by generics or biosimilars over 5 years was simulated. Two replacement scenarios were analyzed: 1) maintaining the drug consumption at a stable level; 2) increasing the drug consumption to the level identified in a previous retrospective analysis of the pharmaceutical market. The baseline scenario implied that the drug purchases remained unchanged (in physical and monetary terms) at the level of 2018. We calculated the difference between the drug costs in the baseline scenario and the costs of the same drugs replaced with generics or biosimilars for a 5 year period.

Results. By gradually replacing the reference drugs with generics or biosimilars in a region with a population of 2 million and keeping the costs of drugs for solid tumors at the 352.2 million rubles for 5 years (baseline scenario), 69.4 million rubles can be saved. That amount represents 19.7% of the base level if the drug consumption remains at the 2018 level. With an increase in the INN consumption after the release of generics/ biosimilars, no saving is expected; on the contrary, expenses will increase by 14.1% to 400 million rubles, although, an 8.45-fold increase in consumption is projected.

Conclusion. With the appearance of generics / biosimilars for the treatment of solid malignant tumors, the possibility of fund saving depends on the increase in drug consumption.

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