MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF REIMBURSEMENT DECISION MAKING IN RUSSIA. RESULTS OF VIM LIST FOR 2016
Abstract
Background: In 2014 we firstly analyzed the formalized system (points and expert opinions) of drug inclusion and exclusion into the reimbursement lists in Russian Federation. The liner mathematical model of decision making was developed and adopted.
Aim. Update the existing model using the results of reimbursement procedures acting from 2106.
Material and methods. The linear models developed and adopted in 2014 were used. In 2015 we included data on 141 drug dossiers. We analyzed the decision of the expert body, chief Ministry of Health expert and the final committee decision.
Results. 43 new drugs were included into the reimbursement lists acting from 2016. The model of expert body decision had an error 7,09% (12,4% in 2014). The model of chief Ministry of Health expert decision had an error – 7% (10% in 2014). The above mentioned experts became more experienced in the formalized procedure of decision making. The model of final decision had an error about 42% (35% in 2014). Conclusion. Linear models are working tools for modelling reimbursement system decisions. At the mean time the existing system of decision making needs more formalization.
About the Authors
A. S. Kolbin
The first St. Petersburg State Medical University named after Academician Pavlov;
Saint Petersburg State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
MD, professor, head of department of clinical pharmacology and evidence-based medicine, ul. Lva Tolstogo, 6-8, St. Petersburg, 197022;
Professor of the Department of Farmakology, 21-Line, 8, VO, St. Petersburg, 199106
A. V. Prasolov
Saint Petersburg State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
MD, Prof. Head of the department of economic systems modelling,
Universitetsky prospect, 35, Saint-Petersburg, 198504
E. A. Maksimkina
Department of Drug Supply and regulate the handling of medical devices Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
MD, Prof. Head of the department,
Rakhmanovsky pereulok, 3, GSP-4, Moscow, 127994
Yu. E. Balykina
Saint Petersburg State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
PhD, Associate professor of the Department of mathematical modelling of energy systems,
Universitetsky prospect, 35, Saint-Petersburg, 198504
Z. M. Golant
Saint-Petersburg State Chemical-Pharmaceutical Academy
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
PhD, vice-rector for innovations,
Professora Popova street, 14 A, Saint-Petersburg, 197022
Yu. S. Polushin
The first St. Petersburg State Medical University named after Academician Pavlov
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
corresponding member of Russian Academy of Sciences, MD, Prof., vice-rector of scientific development,
ul. Lva Tolstogo, 6-8, St. Petersburg, 197022
A. A. Kurylev
The first St. Petersburg State Medical University named after Academician Pavlov
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
assistant of the Department of clinical pharmacology and evidence-based medicine,
ul. Lva Tolstogo, 6-8, St. Petersburg, 197022
I. A. Vilyum
The first St. Petersburg State Medical University named after Academician Pavlov
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
assistant of professor, Department of clinical pharmacology and evidence-based medicine,
ul. Lva Tolstogo, 6-8, St. Petersburg, 197022
References
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For citation:
Kolbin A.S., Prasolov A.V., Maksimkina E.A., Balykina Y.E., Golant Z.M., Polushin Y.S., Kurylev A.A., Vilyum I.A. MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF REIMBURSEMENT DECISION MAKING IN RUSSIA. RESULTS OF VIM LIST FOR 2016 FARMAKOEKONOMIKA. Modern Pharmacoeconomic and Pharmacoepidemiology. 2016;9(1):34-38. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17749/2070-4909.2016.9.1.034-038
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