Development of a method for calculation of demand for medical personnel in the healthcare of the Russian Federation, using a mathematical model

Aim. The study is aimed to determine and test the approaches to the development of a method for calculation of the demand for medical personnel in the healthcare in the Russian Federation, using a mathematical model of human resource for healthcare HRH balancing.

Materials and methods. As part of the study, the development of a project of the calculation method for the demand for medical personnel in healthcare in the Russian Federation was carried out. The authors based on the foreign experience in the approaches to the calculation of the demand for medical personnel in the economically developed countries that apply socially-oriented healthcare systems (state or social insurance-based) as well as experience of using various approaches to methods of calculation of the demand for medical personnel existing in Russia. To calculate the justified demand for medical personnel in certain specialties, calculations were carried out stagewise and data tables were created, which provided a base for a mathematical model of HRH balancing implemented in the Microsoft Excel environment. The conceptual model was based on a balance of supply and demand modules. As a result of the calculation and comparison of the number of different specialty doctors, this model shows the deficit or surplus of HHR in each module.

Results. This mathematical model of balancing the HRH based on the results of two modules operating to calculate the supply and demand for one specific planning horizon can be used to calculate and compare the following factors: the number of doctors in the simulated period; increase/decrease in demand for HRH; increase/decrease in the number of doctors in the medium and long-term compared to the base year. This model can be supplemented with a block calculating the labor remuneration fund (LRF) for the simulated period and accounting for changes in the consumption (demand) of medical care depending on the implementation of various national projects in the field of healthcare. The presented calculation approach shows that the demand for medical personnel will grow in the next 7-10 years. However, in the long-term perspective, the opposite situation is possible due to an oversupply of personnel in healthcare, which may entail other organizational and social problems and, consequently, other managerial solutions.

Conclusion. The results of this study can be used to reform the existing approaches to the calculation of the demand for medical personnel to increase the organizational and economic efficiency of workforce planning in healthcare, as well as to develop techniques to check the justifiability of funding levels, including those aimed at the provision, maintenance and professional development of health human resources.

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