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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="en"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">farmaec</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="en">FARMAKOEKONOMIKA. Modern Pharmacoeconomics and Pharmacoepidemiology</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title>ФАРМАКОЭКОНОМИКА. Современная фармакоэкономика и фармакоэпидемиология</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2070-4909</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2070-4933</issn><publisher><publisher-name>IRBIS LLC</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17749/2070-4909/farmakoekonomika.2020.025</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">farmaec-385</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ORIGINAL ARTICLES</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ ПУБЛИКАЦИИ</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Prognosis of the influence of direct oral anticoagulants on the direct medical expenses in patients with atrial fibrillation</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title>Прогнозирование влияния прямых оральных антикоагулянтов на прямые медицинские затраты у больных фибрилляцией предсердий</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2209-9457</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Мальчикова</surname><given-names>С. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Malchikova</surname><given-names>S. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>ул. Карла Маркса, д. 112, Киров 610998, Россия</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"/><email xlink:type="simple">malchikova@list.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Коробейникова</surname><given-names>А. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Korobeinikova</surname><given-names>A. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Октябрьский проспект, д. 82а, Киров 610017, Россия</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p> </p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Максимчук-Колобова</surname><given-names>Н. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Maksimchuk-Kolobova</surname><given-names>N. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>ул. Карла Маркса, д. 112, Киров 610998, Россия </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"/><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Казаковцева</surname><given-names>М. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kazakovtseva</surname><given-names>M. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>ул. Карла Маркса, д. 112, Киров 610998, Россия </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"/><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru">Федеральное государственное бюджетное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Кировский государственный медицинский университет» Министерства здравоохранения Российской Федерации<country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">Kirov State Medical University<country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru">Кировское областное государственное клиническое бюджетное учреждение здравоохранения «Центр кардиологии и неврологии»<country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">Center of Cardiology and Neurology<country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2020</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>08</day><month>08</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><volume>13</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>124</fpage><lpage>131</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Malchikova S.V., Korobeinikova A.N., Maksimchuk-Kolobova N.S., Kazakovtseva M.V., 2020</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Мальчикова С.В., Коробейникова А.Н., Максимчук-Колобова Н.С., Казаковцева М.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Malchikova S.V., Korobeinikova A.N., Maksimchuk-Kolobova N.S., Kazakovtseva M.V.</copyright-holder><license license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.pharmacoeconomics.ru/jour/article/view/385">https://www.pharmacoeconomics.ru/jour/article/view/385</self-uri><abstract><sec><title>Aim</title><p>Aim. To evaluate clinical-economical effectiveness of direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and apixaban in comparison with warfarin in atrial fibrillation (AF) therapy.</p></sec><sec><title>Materials and Methods</title><p>Materials and Methods. Mathematical modeling (tree derivation of solutions) on a temporary 5-year horizon from the medical healthcare system perspective. Methods of clinical-economic analysis: analysis “cost-effectiveness”, “budget impact”, and “the analysis of unseized opportunities”.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Results. Total direct costs (DC) were lower by 10.3% when dabigatran was used, by 5.2%, when rivaroxaban was used, and by 10.9%, when apixaban was used in comparison with warfarin. The most significant difference was observed due to different cost of therapy for bleeding complications (in the structure of the costs, it occupied 30-38%). In the group of dabigatran, DC on bleeding complications were lower than in the group of warfarin by 22.0%, in the group of rivaroxaban – by 10.9%, in the group of apixaban – by 36.8%. Besides, in the group of dabigatran, the costs associated with the treatment for ischemic stroke were lower by 28.1% The strategy of the application of DOAC in comparison with warfarin provided more adjusted life years (ALY), complications adjusted life years (CALY), and its lower cost. The application of DOAC saves significant funds. At the same time, the saved funds will provide the purchase of additional modern drugs for patients. The cost-cutting reaches 12% for 5 years and up to 33 patients out of 1000 can receive additional treatment.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusion</title><p>Conclusion. Due to the prevention of thromboembolic complications in patients that received direct oral anticoagulants, the direct costs can be reduced by 28.1% and due to the prevention of bleeding complications – by 36.8% in comparison with the application of warfarin. Direct oral anticoagulants provide more adjusted life years and complications adjusted life years at a lower cost. </p></sec></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="ru"><sec><title>Цель</title><p>Цель. Оценить клинико-экономическую эффективность использования прямых оральных антикоагулянтов (ПОАК) – дабигатрана, ривароксабана, апиксабана по сравнению с варфарином при лечении фибрилляции предсердий (ФП).</p></sec><sec><title>Материалы и методы</title><p>Материалы и методы. Математическое моделирование (построение дерева решений) на временном горизонте 5 лет с перспективы системы здравоохранения. Методы клинико-экономического анализа: анализ «затраты-эффективность»; анализ «влияния на бюджет»; анализ  «упущенных возможностей».</p></sec><sec><title>Результаты</title><p>Результаты. Суммарные прямые затраты (ПЗ) при использовании дабигатрана были на 10,3% меньше, при использовании ривароксабана – на 5,2% меньше; при использовании апиксабана – на  10,9% меньше по сравнению с варфарином. При этом наибольшая разница возникала вследствие различной стоимости терапии геморрагических осложнений (в структуре затрат они составляли 30–38%). В группе дабигатрана ПЗ на геморрагические осложнения была меньше группы варфарина на 22,0%, в группе ривароксабана – на 10,9%, в группе апиксабана – на 36,8%. Кроме того, в группе дабигатрана на 28,1% были меньше затраты, связанные с лечением ишемического инсульта. Стратегия применения ПОАК по сравнению с варфарином позволяет обеспечить большее количество сохраненных лет жизни (СЛЖ) и сохраненных лет жизни без осложнений (СЛЖБО) и меньшую их стоимость. Использование ПОАК позволяет сохранить  значительные средства бюджета, при этом сэкономленные средства позволяют пролечить  современными ЛС пациентов дополнительно. Экономия средств достигает 12% за 5 лет, при этом  до 33 больных из 1000 могут быть пролечены дополнительно.</p></sec><sec><title>Заключение</title><p>Заключение. Прямые затраты в результате предупреждения тромбоэмболических осложнений при использовании прямых оральных антикоагулянтов в сравнении с варфарином могут быть снижены на 28,1%, геморрагических осложнений – на 36,8%. Прямые оральные антикоагулянты позволяют  сохранить большее количество лет жизни и лет жизни без осложнений за меньшую стоимость.  </p></sec></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>Фибрилляция предсердий</kwd><kwd>оральные антикоагулянты</kwd><kwd>математическое моделирование</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Atrial fibrillation</kwd><kwd>oral anticoagulants</kwd><kwd>mathematic modeling</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group xml:lang="ru"><funding-statement>Работа выполнена по грантам РФФИ № 19-07-00356 и 18-07-00944</funding-statement></funding-group><funding-group xml:lang="en"><funding-statement>The study was funded by the RFBR grants 19-07-00356, 18-07-00944.</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Friberg J. Sex-specific increase in the prevalence of atrial fibrillation (The Copenhagen City Heart study). 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